Nobody felt better than yours truly when Trevor Lawrence threw a 25-yard touchdown pass on the opening drive to give the Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) a 7-0 lead on the Denver Broncos.
Raaaaaawr. Unfortunately, Denver outscored the Jags 23-6 from that point forward to cover the spread and keep us from celebrating a 3-1 weekend. I still can’t believe Teddy Bridgewater is 38-14 ATS as a starter in the NFL.
Anyway… These picks are now 5-5-1 on the season, so I’m ready for Week 3 of the NFL and Week 4 of college football. Here are some early best bets and leans in both the NFL and college football, with lines courtesy of FOX Bet:
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Rutgers (+19 at FOX Bet) at Michigan
When Jim Harbaugh runs up the score on lowly Northern Illinois 63-10, it gives us some extra wiggle room the following week. Unlike NIU, Rutgers can tackle and complete a forward pass. They’ve got uniforms and everything.
Seriously, though, this number should be a lot closer to Michigan -14.5. The Wolverines (3-0 ATS) are better than voters and oddsmakers thought, which, in a weird, roundabout way, gives us betting value on Rutgers (also 3-0 ATS).
Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights on the up and up with senior quarterback Noah Vedral running the show. Rutgers has more speed and skill than you think, and the Knights can score enough to keep this one interesting.
Take the points.
PICK: Rutgers (+19) to lose by fewer than 19 points (or win outright)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Over 51.5 at FOX Bet
Everybody that watched the Boys and Birds play in Week 1 practically ran to the betting window to bet their respective “Overs” in Week 2. So naturally, Dallas and Los Angeles scored 37 points while Philadelphia and San Francisco combined for 28.
Them’s the breaks in gambling sometimes.
There were 827 yards of offense in the Chargers-Cowboys game, but some costly interceptions by Justin Herbert – including one in the end zone – kept points off the board. I am convinced that the final score was an anomaly.
We saw the Eagles-49ers matchup play out similarly. Philadelphia had a first-quarter touchdown called back because receiver Jalen Reagor stepped out of bounds before making the catch. If that wasn’t enough, Jake Elliott proceeded to kick his field goal attempt into a wall of San Francisco special teamers. The game turned into a slow crawl from there.
I expect Dallas or Philadelphia to set the pace very early with a touchdown to open things up. Both teams have too much speed and play with too much pace to play anything other than the “Over.”
The Eagles also lost star pass rusher, Brandon Graham, for the season with an Achilles injury.
Buckle up!
PICK: OVER 51.5 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet
Six-point teaser: Browns to -1.5 vs. Chicago Bears; Saints to +8.5 vs. New England Patriots (-125 at FOX Bet)
If you’re not familiar, a two-team teaser allows you to move a side or total six points, but you must win both legs to cash. I don’t particularly love laying -125 on a teaser, but I’ll do it in this situation, given the circumstances.
Let’s tease Cleveland down through the 7 and 3 and New Orleans up through the 3 and 7 to maximize our edge. Thank you, Stanford Wong.
Chicago is a horrendously coached football team that feasted on an even more terrible Cincinnati offensive line. And the game was still too close for comfort because Matt Nagy gonna Matt Nagy.
Word is, Andy Dalton will start at quarterback if he’s healthy, and that should tell you everything you need to know about the Bears.
Meanwhile, New Orleans looked terrific in the opener and abysmal in the second game, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Expect the Saints defense to bounce back in Foxboro against rookie quarterback Mac Jones. I love the Saints getting over a touchdown with the tease.
LEANS
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: Under 43 total points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Bill Belichick has a great defense and a rookie quarterback, and he certainly has more trust in the former when it comes to game scripting.
Belichick has made a Hall of Fame career out of tormenting erratic quarterbacks, and that song should remain the same against Saints signal-caller Jameis Winston.
The Patriots have been relatively conservative on offense – especially in the red zone – which keeps the ball on the ground and time melting off the clock. Expect New England to lean heavily on the run and short passing game until Mac Jones’ training wheels come off.
This total is as low as it is for a reason.
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